Avalanche in Control of Series Against the Jets Going into Game 3

Game 2 was a more tightly-contested affair despite the final score. The Avalanche scored four goals in the second period – including three unanswered – and capped off the 5-2 win with an empty-net goal by Valeri Nichushkin. The shots were 32-30 in favor of Colorado, and they also accrued 19 high-danger chances to the Jets’ 13 in all situations.

With Game 3 on the horizon (Apr. 26) and the series hanging in the balance, here are three takeaways from the first two games and which trends could define the rest of the first-round tilt.

Avalanche Controlling Run of Play at Five-on-Five

It has been hinted at, but it has to be frustrating that the Avalanche haven’t been fully rewarded for tilting the ice in their favor despite splitting the first two games. Here’s a look at their share of shots (SF), scoring chances (SCF), high-danger chances (HDCF), and expected goals (xGF) at five-on-five.

Avalanche	Statistic	Jets
58.3%	SF	41.7%
59.8%	SCF	40.2%
56.8%	HDCF	43.2%
65.2%	xGF	34.8%

The Avalanche and Jets compared in several shot and chance metrics at five-on-five, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

These numbers are less important or informative in a smaller sample size (such as a playoff series), but they can help illustrate which team is tilting the ice in their favor and whether puck luck is playing an outsized role in the results. Despite dominating the shot clock, the Avalanche have been outscored 8-7 at five-on-five and should be in line for positive results if they maintain this level of play.

It’s hard to see them not winning the series, but goaltending (more on that later) and special teams will both have an impact going forward. The Avalanche power play went 2-2 in Game 1 and 0-3 in Game 2 and failed to convert on a double-minor penalty to Kyle Connor early in the second period, though they scored three times in the final six minutes of the frame to take a 4-2 lead into the third.

The Jets’ power play went 1-2 in Game 1 and 0-3 in Game 2, the latter of which will haunt them if the Avalanche go on to win the series. It’s unlikely that Colorado’s stars will be held off the scoresheet entirely with the man advantage, so this was a missed opportunity to crank the pressure up heading into Game 3.

Avalanche’s Superstars Driving the Offence

After over half of a decade, it shouldn’t be surprising that Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon continue to power the Avalanche offence to new heights and have steered the club to an admirable 1-1 split heading back home.

Makar finished second among all defensemen in goals (21), assists (69), and points (90) during the regular season to set new career highs in the latter two categories, breaking his own franchise records. He posted three points (one goal and two assists) in Game 1 and tacked on another two assists in Game 2 while setting the tempo from the blue line.

MacKinnon should be named a finalist for the Hart Trophy after compiling 51 goals (fourth among all skaters), 89 assists (third), and 140 points (second) while playing in all 82 regular-season games. All three marks represent new personal bests, with his point total setting a new franchise record after besting the 139 posted by Peter Stastny in 1981-82.

MacKinnon tallied two points (one goal and one assist) in Game 1 and a lone assist in Game 2 but gave the Jets’ defenders fits as he sliced through the neutral zone unopposed all game long and looked dangerous throughout.

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One notable outlier is winger Mikko Rantanen, who, despite tallying a pair of assists in the opening game, looks a step behind his usual pace. There is always a shroud around injuries and player health come playoff time, but it’s reasonable to believe that the Finnish forward still feels the effects of a concussion suffered in the final few weeks of the regular season. If he returns to something approaching full health, the Jets may not have an answer for an attack that has no problems unraveling their defensive scheme.

Five other Avalanche skaters have scored at least two points through the first two games (Artturi Lehkonen has two goals and two assists), and continuing to contribute regularly on the scoresheet could relieve the stars of some of their offensive burden.

Goaltending a Massive Factor Through Two Games

It’s not often that teams put six goals past Connor Hellebuyck and lose, but the Avalanche managed to accomplish that unfortunate feat in Game 1. Despite peppering him with 46 shots on goal, the American netminder turned aside 40 and outdueled his counterpart in the Avalanche net, Alexandar Georgiev, who had an outing to forget.

Georgiev allowed seven goals on 23 shots to sink Colorado’s hopes at a comeback after entering the third period down 4-3. The Avalanche’s defenders did him no favors by leaving him out to dry on several odd-man rushes, but getting saves in key situations is a prerequisite for any Stanley Cup contender.

Georgiev’s play this season has been a point of controversy, as he’s been unable to recreate his performance from the 2022-23 campaign in which he ranked at or near the top 10 across all meaningful statistical goaltending categories. The 28-year-old’s showing in Game 1 did little to dispel the doubts that have crept up about his game, with many clamoring for head coach Jared Bednar to turn towards an alternative in the crease.

Justus Annunen – the de-facto backup in the second half of the season – was ruled out for both games due to an illness, forcing Bednar to go back to his starter in Game 2. Georgiev redeemed himself and repaid his coach for his faith in him with a much-improved performance in Game 2. He stopped 28 of 30 shots and made a point-blank save on Nikolaj Ehlers late in the third period, one of eight saves in the third as the Jets pushed for an equalizer.

Georgiev’s resurrection makes it unlikely that Bednar turns to Annunen for Game 3, and he should have a longer leash, barring another catastrophic outing.

Despite being the probable Vezina Trophy winner this season, Hellebuyck has looked shaky early on, which should inspire confidence among the Avalanche ranks that they can continue to solve the Jets’ star goaltender.

Georgiev’s Game 1 meltdown took the attention away from what wasn’t a strong game from Hellebuyck (.869 save percentage), and he looked uncharacteristically out of sorts. Most notably, he misplayed a puck behind the net that led to Avalanche forward Zach Parise converting on a scramble in front of the net to take a 3-2 lead with under three minutes in the second.

Hellebuyck is running a .870 SV% through the first two games and has looked unstable when the Avalanche dial up the pressure. If he can’t find his usual form and Georgiev is at least average for the rest of the series, the Jets could find themselves facing an early exit after harboring legitimate Stanley Cup hopes heading into the postseason.

Home-Ice Advantage Looms Large Going Back to Colorado

The Avalanche were the best home team in the league this season, winning 31 of 41 games at Ball Arena while sporting a plus-60 goal differential (only the Edmonton Oilers were better with plus-63). Colorado scored the most goals per game (4.2) and ran the third-best power play (27.9%) while playing within the friendly confines of their home rink, and could find it easier to gather and sustain on-ice momentum in Denver.

In comparison, the Jets’s road record ranked sixth, going 25-13-3 with a plus-22 goal differential. They are well-equipped to steal at least one road game behind Hellebuyck despite his uncharacteristic struggles, and doing so could swing the series in their favor.

The Avalanche won the first game and at least two of the first three of each of their series on the way to winning the 2022 Stanley Cup, so capitalizing on home-ice advantage with a win in Game 3 could go a long way toward avoiding another underwhelming playoff exit.

Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.