College Football Playoff Championship odds suggest only four teams can win it all even in new 12-team format

If you're new to betting markets, the most important columns for you to pay attention to are the "Champ %" (percent probability to win the championship), "Playoff %" (percent probability to make the playoff), and the implied win totals. Those three things will help us identify who the real contenders are supposed to be this year according to oddsmakers and what the actual playoff field could look like.

Before we dive into real contenders and the likely playoff field, there are a few things to know about the new format if you aren't aware already:

• Four teams get a first round bye
• First round byes are the four highest ranked conference champions
• The fifth highest ranked conference champion also earns a playoff spot, but not a first round bye
• There are seven "at-large" bids still decided upon via the College Football Playoff Selection Committee

If you have any questions on these betting odds or the new College Football Playoff format feel free to reach out to me @FF_TravisM on X (Twitter).

Real CFP Championship Contenders

Surprisingly enough, even with the new 12-team format, based on FanDuel's implied championship odds, over 65% of probability to win it all in 2024 lives with just four teams. That's essentially 2:1 odds in favor of those four teams versus the entire remaining field of possibilities. 

If we try and solve for FanDuel's "true" probability (getting rid of their vig/hold) the odds for the top four is closer to 50% instead of 65%, but either way sports books are essentially saying Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, or Oregon are going to win the championship this year.

Yes, Alabama is always "in the mix", which is why they're sitting fifth, around 7% posted championship odds (likely around 5% true probability). But books are basically telling the general public that the expanded college football playoff does almost nothing in terms of creating real opportunities for more teams to win it all.

This truth is especially apparent when we look at the odds for ACC or Big 12 teams to win the championship. Both conferences are guaranteed a playoff spot, and virtually guaranteed a first round bye, yet Florida State (the most likely ACC/Big 12 contender) sits at 3.45% implied odds to win it all. And in reality, FanDuel's in-house "true probability" likely has them below 3%. If we look at the Big 12 favorites, Utah and Kansas State, neither have even 2% odds to win it all despite one of them very likely landing a first round bye.

Even with the 12-team format, it's still clearly Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and almost nobody else who can really win the championship this year.

Teams with Realistic Playoff Odds 

Obviously the top four teams have extremely good odds to make the playoff (all of them with greater than a two-thirds probability available to the betting public). But beyond that, who can realistically make the very first 12-Team College Football Playoff field?

Notre Dame is actually the fifth most likely team to make the playoff for multiple reasons. One, they don't have to compete in a conference championship game that may hurt their final resume. Two, their schedule is rather easy compared to many of the Big Ten and SEC teams. There's a great chance they're sitting with at least 10 wins at the end of November.

Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Penn State, and Michigan are the next pod of teams with exceptionally high odds to make the playoff this year. All of them have 44% or higher implied odds to make it and greater than 4% odds to win it all. However, even if the season goes exactly as these odd predict, one of these teams will end up getting left out. Why? Let's just count the playoff spots out to demonstrate the potential conundrum that the College Football Playoff Selection Committee might face this fall:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. ACC Champion
4. Big 12 Champion
5. Next Highest Ranked Conference Champion
6. Texas
7. Oregon
8. Notre Dame

Eight slots would already be taken in the chalk "most likely" outcome, leaving only four spots for the five teams mentioned above. If you thought we were done with the controversy of who gets left out, think again.

Outside of those teams we'll likely have Florida State, Clemson, and Miami (FL) competing for the ACC Championship spot. Then Kansas State, Utah, and perhaps Kansas or Arizona hoping for the Big 12 crown.

Tennessee, Missouri, and Texas A&M all have paths to the playoff as well if they can exceed in-conference expectations. Nico Iamaleava has all the talents to push the Vols into playoff contention all year long. Missouri's Luther Burden should given the Tigers an electric offense that may keep them in the mix. And Texas A&M still has plenty of talent for first year coach Mike Elko to utilize. After that tier, every other power conference team has less than 2% true odds to win it all and less than 20% odds to make the playoff.

Which non-power conference team will steal the final playoff spot? There are only five teams with greater than even 0.1% odds to win it all according to FanDuel: Memphis, Oregon State, Liberty, Boise State, and Tulane. Memphis and Tulane will likely battle it out for the AAC Championship. Oregon State is the best of the two former Pac-12 teams remaining. Liberty could very well go undefeated against their laughably weak CUSA schedule. And Boise State should absolutely destroy most of the Mountain West.

Most Likely 12-Team Playoff Bracket

First Round Byes

Georgia, Ohio State, Florida State, and Kansas State are currently the betting markets' favorites to win the top four conferences. Clemson and Utah both have nearly equal odds to win with their respective conferences. However, the loser of the ACC and Big 12 championship games likely miss the playoffs completely.

Seeds 5 through 12

Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame are all expected to win at least 10 games, if not 11. There's a great chance all three host a playoff game.

Alabama is the wild card with new head coach Kalen DeBoer, but if they get to 10 wins they'll probably be the final host of a first round playoff game.

Ole Miss and their transfer-heavy roster. LSU with a new look defense. Penn State with Drew Allar taking another step. An undefeated Liberty team. Those four teams likely round out seeds 9-12.

First Teams Out

Michigan could defy expectations if they can get their quarterback situation sorted given their unbelievable defense, but there's a great chance they're the first team out.

A one-loss Boise State team with a conference championship would probably land in the playoff, but if they have two losses they're likely the first non-power conference team out. Memphis and Tulane may beat each other up too.

Tennessee and Oklahoma are probably just a year away with Nico Iamaleava and Jackson Arnold as their five star stud QBs. Missouri may not have the necessary depth to finish 10-2 again. Texas A&M probably gets there eventually with Mike Elko, but not in year one. Miami (FL) is still probably third in the ACC, which is an improvement, but not enough in the end. And USC just lost a first overall draft pick in Caleb Williams and still has defensive depth issues.

It's clear, there will certainly be many more teams truthfully in the mix for a playoff spot much deeper into the season in 2024. However, it's also fairly clear according to oddsmakers that the field of potential champions won't really expand, even in the 12-team playoff era.